Hurricane Season Predictions
Here we go again. June 1, was the official start of hurricane season. Hurricanes are among nature’s most powerful and destructive phenomena. We’ve already seen one named storm; Tropical Storm Alberto brought deadly flooding and mudslides to the Florida Panhandle and the Southeast in late May 2018.
Forecasters are expecting 12 more named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The primary hazards are storm surge flooding, inland flooding from heavy rains, destructive winds, tornadoes, and high surf and rip currents.
Regardless of the forecast, it takes only one storm to claim lives and property.
At times, it’s easy to feel helpless in the face of these storms. But thankfully, atmospheric scientists have made huge strides in forecasting the path of storms and how these storms might grow in a climate-changing world. That helps us prepare for the worst.
Here’s some good news: In 2017, the NHC’s predictions were the most accurate storm-path predictions on record, according to a recent NOAA report.
Consider what happened with Hurricane Irma last year. That storm skirted through the Caribbean and then took a nearly 90-degree turn northward toward Florida. The NHC predicted this northward turn would happen four days out. Improvements in computer models, computer processors, and data collection (obtained via actually flying planes through hurricanes) all contribute to this great increase in predictive power.
But challenges in forecasting still remain.
It’s harder because there are so many factors that go into a hurricane’s intensity: ocean temperatures, wind shear higher up in the atmosphere, interactions with land. Atmospheric scientists don’t yet have the density of data or the computer models to make huge improvements in this area.
But overall, the trend of increasingly accurate forecasts is likely to continue. NOAA has launched two new satellites monitoring into our atmosphere this year. And it continues to update its computer models to make forecasts.
There may be destructive storms, but we’ll see them coming.
Even though forecasting is improving, you will need to have the proper coverage now to ensure insurance protection is in place before future storms.
New flood policies have a 30-day waiting period after premium payment before the policy is effective. Give us a call today to discuss your Flood, Business, Homeowners, or Condominium Policy options.